Access Economics: Australian Government spending on aged care will more than double relative to gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050.
An Access Economics report, commissioned by the National Seniors Productive Ageing Centre (NSPAC) on the future of aged care services in Australia, notes that "the aged care system is experiencing rapid demand growth due to demographic ageing, increases in income and expectations, and increasing prevalence of chronic disease. These factors have led to Treasury estimates that Australian Government spending on aged care will more than double relative to national income over the period of the Third Intergenerational Report (2010 to 2050).
Treasury’s forecast of 1 in 20 Australians aged 85+ by 2050 profoundly affects planning for chronic age related conditions.
Increasing longevity is associated with higher prevalence of chronic disease, more prolonged duration of illness, and more complex comorbidities to manage.
Access Economics (2009b) has highlighted the challenges that the aged care system will face as the number of people with dementia increases. Neurodegenerative diseases such as dementia can precipitate the need for care services or elevate the level of care required. The proportion of services allocated to high care will need to increase over time and adapt to the special needs of people with dementia and other severe chronic disease. This is expected (Treasury, 2010) to result in a much larger relative increase in spending on [residential aged care] than on community care.
Overall, Treasury estimates that Australian Government spending on aged care will more than double relative to gross domestic product (GDP) over the period of the Third Intergenerational Report (2010 to 2050)."
Please visit the National Seniors Australia or the Access Economics websites for more information.
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